Derby Picks — Version 1.0

I used to play a pinball machine called Eight Ball Deluxe. Once you fed your quarters into the machine and started the game, you heard “stop talking and start chalking”. As we close in on 6:08pm on the First Saturday in May, it is time to stop talking and start chalking, or in this case start picking.

Out of my stable of eight Derby entrants in the Road to the Roses fantasy game that I mentioned yesterday, I must activate five (and only 5) for scoring in the Kentucky Derby. So, without further ado, here they are.

1. Curlin. Has done nothing wrong in his three races. Has won by large margins and was visually impressive in the Arkansas Derby. The knock on him is that he never raced at 2, and no horse has ever won the Derby without a two year-old race.
2. Great Hunter. I’ve liked this guy from the beginning. Had a tough trip in the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland.
3. Hard Spun. Easily won the Lane’s End Stakes at Turfway Park against weaker. Had a bullet work at Churchill on April 30 and is said to be in great shape.
4. Nobiz Like Shobiz. Nice win in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct.
5. Street Sense. How can you knock the winner of the Breeders Cup Juvenile last fall over this same Churchill Downs track last fall?

The contest closes at noon on Derby Day, so my list might change in the next 26 hours if I continue to overthink what is often a chaotic and difficult race to figure.

Disclaimer: The horses mentioned above are not necessarily my Kentucky Derby selections. My wagering choices are likely very different as I’m interested in some horses not in my stable. Should any reader and/or potential reader of the blog and/or feed of this blog use my selections for the personal wagering selections, well then, I am not responsible nor liable for any losses incurred.

My Derby Dilemma

Quite awhile back, I mentioned that I’m a contestant in the Road to the Roses fantasy game. The game, sponsored by Churchill Downs, started back in January and ends after the Kentucky Derby on Saturday. Basically, the contestants picked a stable of Derby nominated three year-olds and “entered” them in a series of prep races throughout the three year-old season. My stable, Top Down Stables, got points for each horse that “hit the board” (first, second, or third) in each of the prep races.

As it stands now, Top Down Stables is ranked 797 out of over 20,000 players, my best ever. And now we come down to the final race of the contest. The big one! The Kentucky Derby!

So here’s the thing. My stable is allowed to “enter” 5 of my 15 horses for the big race. But out of those 15, it’s very likely that 8 will be in the post parade as they sing “My Old Kentucky Home.” Here’s my stable, with post position and morning line odds:

2. Curlin / 7-2
3. Zanjero / 30-1
7. Street Sense / 4-1
8. Hard Spun /15-1
12. Nobiz Like Shobiz / 8-1
16. Circular Quay /  8-1
18. Any Given Saturday / 12-1
20. Great Hunter / 15-1

Eight Derby starters in my stable, and I can only use 5.  What I’m hoping for is big points by having all three from Top Down Stables hit the board.  It’s gonna take some deliberating to pick the three most unlikely to get me points.  In a race that’s loaded with good contenders.

That’s my dilemma.  Any suggestions?

Kentucky Derby Post Positions

Take a look below. Here are the post positions for the 133rd running of the Kentucky Derby from Churchill Downs.

PP	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Owner	Track Odds
1	Sedgefield	Julien Leparoux	Darrin Miller	Silverton Farm	50-1
2	Curlin	Robby Albarado	Steve Asmussen	Stonestreet Stables, Padua Stables, George Bolton, and Midnight Cry Stables	7-2
3	Zanjero	Shaun Bridgmohan	Steve Asmussen	Winchell Thoroughbreds	30-1
4	Storm in May	Juan Leyva	William Kaplan	W. Kaplan, D. and T. Palmer, and F. Waugh	30-1
5	Imawildandcrazyguy	Mark Guidry	William Kaplan	Lewis Pell and Michael Eigner	50-1
6	Cowtown Cat	Fernando Jara	Todd Pletcher	WinStar Farm and Gulf Coast Farms	20-1
7	Street Sense	Calvin Borel	Carl Nafzger	James Tafel	4-1
8	Hard Spun	Mario Pino	Larry Jones	Fox Hill Farms	15-1
9	Liquidity	David Flores	Doug O’Neill	J.P. Reddam	30-1
10	Teuflesberg	Stewart Elliot	Jamie Sanders	Jamie Sanders, Gary Logsdon, and Donnie Kelly	30-1
11	Bwana Bull	Javier Castellano	Jerry Hollendorfer	Mark DeDomenica, Mark Jelladian, and Dan and Jerry Todaro	50-1
12	Nobiz Like Shobiz	Cornelio Velasquez	Barclay Tagg	Elizabeth Valando	8-1
13	Sam P.	Ramon Dominguez	Todd Pletcher	Starlight Stable and Donald Lucarelli	20-1
14	Scat Daddy	Edgar Prado	Todd Pletcher	James Scatuorchio and Michael Tabor	10-1
15	Tiago	Mike Smith	John Shirreffs	Mr. and Mrs. Jerome Moss	15-1
16	Circular Quay	John Velazquez	Todd Pletcher	Michael and Doreen Tabor	8-1
17	Stormello	Kent Desormeaux	William Currin	William Currin and Alvin Eisman	30-1
18	Any Given Saturday	Garrett Gomez	Todd Pletcher	WinStar Farm and Padua Stables	12-1
19	Dominican	Rafael Bejarano	Darrin Miller	Silverton Hill	20-1
20	Great Hunter	Corey Nakatani	Doug O’Neill	J.P. Reddam	15-1

The Daily Racing Form has free past performances available here.

So who do you like?

Check back in the next day or so as I give you my selections. Given my performance lately, you may wish to pick otherwise.

Run For The Roses

It’s Derby Week, all leading up to the 133rd running of the Kentucky Derby this first Saturday in May. Twenty three year-old colts will enter the starting gate at Churchill Downs to “run for the roses.”

Although the Kentucky Derby is probably the most popular horse race of the year, the race certainly does not contain the best race horses out there. The Derby runners are three year old colts, the equivalent of teenage boys. Many are not yet completely developed, but asked to run 1.25 miles, farther than they’ve run before, and carry 126 pounds (jockey included), which is more than they’ve carried before. And then these 20 young colts leave the crowded paddock area, walk slowly through the tunnel under the stands, and then parade in front of the Churchill Downs grandstand, packed with 150,000 noisy people.

The horses don’t have a thought, obviously, but entering the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby is truly “the chance of a lifetime in a lifetime of chance…” as Dan Fogelberg sings in his beautiful song “Run for the Roses”, which previewed at the 1980 Kentucky Derby.

 

The video uses Fogelberg’s song as a backdrop to a tribute to Barbaro, the winner of the 2006 Kentucky Derby. Barbaro was the heroic young race horse who broke his leg in three places just after the gates opened last May 15 at the Preakness Stakes, the second jewel of the Triple Crown. Although he survived several surgeries, he was put down this January 29.

On May 2, is the post position draw, and sometime after that draw, I might add a few comments about my choices for the Kentucky Derby.

From the Horse’s Mouth

That media frenzy surrounding the Kentucky Derby has begun. And you heard it here first. I have the big scoop here on Notes From Neal. Right from the horses’ mouth, as they say.

Live interviews with the actual competitors of the 133rd running of the Kentucky Derby. Just remember, folks, you heard it here first.

I first met with Street Sense, winner of the 2006 Breeders Cup Juvenile and more recently, the Tampa Bay Derby. He was a bit breathless after his workout and was in a hurry to get back to the barn, so he only had a moment, but here’s what he had to say:

Q. “So Street Sense, were you tired after your second place finish in The Bluegrass?”
A. “Neigh, Neigh”

Q. “The last quarter was a tad fast. Is that why you lost.”
A. “Neigh, Neigh”

Q. “Is there anyone who can beat you in the Derby, Street Sense?”
A. “Neigh, Neigh”

Soon after, Curlin came running by, also breathing heavily after a run over the Churchill Downs dirt. He did pause from his busy pre-Derby routine for few quick questions.

 Q. “Mr. Curlin, are you tired after your workout this morning?
A. “Neigh, Neigh”

Q. “Mr. Curlin, the knock on you is that you haven’t beaten anyone yet.  What do you say about that comment?
A. “Pffffffffttt, pfffftttt”

Q.  “We talked to Street Sense earlier and he says he can beat you.  Can he?
A. “Neigh, Neigh”

Be sure to check back here tomorrow when we talk to Great Hunter, one of my top choices to win the Derby.  I promise to have another incisive interview right from the Horse’s Mouth.

Derby Fever and Media Frenzy

It happens like clockwork every year about this time. About The Last Friday in April, Keeneland Race Course closes its doors on another fine spring racing meet and Churchill Downs opens for their Spring Meet. When that happens, racing fans everywhere know we’re close to The First Saturday in May. As I write this post, Derby Day is a mere eight days away.

As the week drags on, the media will descend on Churchill Downs for their annual horse racing frenzy. Many reporters will be disheartened to discover that if they’re going to get a story, they’ll have to roll out of bed in the dark to be out at the track by 5am when the horses work out.

For those writers who were out way too late the night before sipping that smooth and smoky Kentucky bourbon, one of the comments written by PapaChach over at Left at the Gate might help. He has built us a Mad-Lib type workout comment generator.

“[Insert horse's name here] came out on to the track looking [use any or all of the following: "bright", "alert", "happy", "friskier than a new-born Beagle"].

His coat was [choose one of the following: "dappled", "shining like a new penny", "exploding with equine majesty"].

He broke off around the [insert workout starting point here] and settled into a good gallop. Around the turn he [insert one of the following phrases here: "leveled off beautifully", "put that magnificient head down and gobbled up ground effortlessly"].

[Insert exercise rider name here] sat chillier than a late autumn morn’ as [insert horse name here] motored home effortlessly through the stretch. [Rider name] had to wrangle with him [use one of the following: "like an Olympian Greco-Roman going for the gold", "like Andre the Giant trying to take down Chief J Strongbow"] to get him to pull up down the backstretch.

When he came off the track he ["couldn't have blown out a candle from three inches away", "looked like he could have worked another mile in 1:33 flat"]. This is a horse who is ["really feeling his oats", "looks like he could give Secretariat a run for his money", "worked so good I wet my pants"] and he really could be sitting on a ["monster effort", "the race of his life"]. With this work he must now be considered a serious threat come Saturday.”

Be sure to stay tuned to this blog for an upcoming interview with one of the actual competitors in this year’s Kentucky Derby. I promise you, it’ll be right from the horses mouth.

Answers to Burning Questions

In case you didn’t know, on the screens behind this blog that only people like me can see, is a function called The Dashboard. One of the things that the Dashboard displays is what search terms people are using to hit my blog.

So as a public service, I thought I’d answer several of the more ponderous questions that people seek answers for when they hit my blog. Here are some of the search terms used:

• Butter Jesus. Also known as “Touchdown Jesus”, this statue of an image alleged to be Jesus, arms uplifted and all is found a few miles north of Cincinnati. The outrageous statue is located just of the east of Interstate 75 at Exit 29 near Monroe, Ohio. You can’t miss it. You can click this link for more details.
• Neal Watzman. Yes, that’s right, I’m a search term. Almost daily someone out there is looking for me. Well you found me. I’m certainly not going to post my email address so that everyone all over the world can spam me, but I’ll gladly post a link to Watzman Associates, my FileMaker consulting company. Post a comment if you want something.
• Jesus sex. Jesus sex? What’s up with that? Taken separately, both are good things. Taken together, well, it’s really not any of my business. Most people don’t go searching the web to find out if I’ve had sex, at least as far as I can tell. Maybe there’s a few, and they just forgot to add it to the end of a search for my name.
• On a more serious note, another question is “how many World War II veterans die each day?” The answer: about 1,200 each day. We’re losing more and more of these amazing people, like my father, every day. And not only are the families losing parents and grandparents, but we are losing their story about one of the most significant events of modern times. If you are reading this and know a WWII Veteran, see if you can get them to tell you about their war experiences. I am blessed that my father wrote his memoirs at my request a few years before he died. I’ve posted them on my blog. Part I and Part II. You can view the Library of Congress Veterans History Project through another link.
• Who do you like in The Derby? Honestly, that one has not appeared in my list of search terms, but is certainly a valid question. Tough call, but I’m thinking about Great Hunter, Curlin, or Nobiz Like Showbiz. Feel free to disagree and comment below.

Opening Day

Look up a few lines! Right below the article title, you’ll see the date this article was posted. April 6, 2007. Opening Day at River Downs and at Keeneland. Spring is here and you’ll find the race horses back in town. And I’ll be down there at River Downs, looking the horses over in the paddock and making a wager or two.

River Downs is a pretty little race track located right on the Ohio River on the east side of Cincinnati. For me, it a short ten minute ride down the hill. The horses are primarily cheap claimers, meaning minor league runners, but the racing is fun and competitive at that level. The track is a friendly place for both adults and children, and a pleasant place to spend a spring or summer afternoon, and, as far as I’m concerned, they have the best popcorn around Cincinnati. One of my favorite spots to really watch the races is on the rail at the top of the stretch, which is located in the east parking lot. It’s quiet down there, you can hear the thunder of hooves as the horses round the turn. And then they’re in front of you, turning for home. The jockey’s snap their whips, chirp at their horses to go, and yell at each other. Don’t miss it.

Keeneland Race Course is horse racing heaven just 100 miles down the road in Lexington, Kentucky. Located in the heart of “horse country, Keeneland itself was once a horse farm and adjoins the fabled Calumet Farm, once home to Alydar and Derby winner Strike the Gold. Keeneland is only open for about three weeks in April and October, and attract many of the best horses and riders in the world. It’s a beautiful place in spring with the trees blossoming, the grass green, and the days warming. And in the fall, it’s simply golden at Keeneland. I go down at least once every season to soak in the best Kentucky and horse racing have to offer.

Speaking of Opening Day, for Cincinnati, Opening Day is the holiday when the Cincinnati Reds play their first home game. This year, it was last Monday, April 2 and celebrated with a parade from Findlay Market, as well as a Reds victory.  Traditionally, Opening Day was the day of the first baseball game of the season, but several years ago baseball broke the tradition, selling out to the demands of television to show the first game on a Sunday night.  There was a time that holding Opening Day tickets was an legitimate excuse to miss school or work, and even now, the game sells out within minutes of tickets being released.  I’ve been once, and Opening Day is a celebration of the good about Cincinnati.

The Derby for $89,000

Imagine yourself at the Kentucky Derby on the First Saturday in May, which happens to be May 5, 2007. You hold four tickets to a two-story high roller box with over 50 LCD screens at Churchill Downs on Derby Day. In your hand is one of four $1,000 mint juleps exclusively created by the good folks at Churchill Downs for this year’s Kentucky Derby. And as you smugly sip the smooth and sweet beverage, you know that you are drinking one of only 133 thousand-dollar mint juleps made that day. Such satisfaction that only the American dollar can buy.

This part is cool, however, and oh, so tempting. As a part of the package you get to hang out with the Kentucky Derby contenders and walk over to the paddock from the backside with the horses and their connections.

Add accomodations at a “premier hotel” in downtown Louisville for three nights, along with a limo ride to the track on Derby Day and you get something going on.

Sound good? Got a spare $89,000 in chump change? And a Sam’s Club membership? If so, click here to go to the Sam’s Club web site to purchase this “once in a lifetime Ultimate Kentucky Derby Package“.

Oh, and while you’re waiting for the race to start, would you mind putting down a couple bucks on Great Hunter to win for me?

Taking Our Kids to the Races

A member of a horse racing email list to which I subscribe sent me an article from Slate entitled Quinn and Dixie go to Mardi Gras. This excellent read is actually a tale of a father taking his two young children to The Fairgrounds, a race track in New Orleans. It’s sure to bring a smile to your face, particularly if you have had or now have young children.

My children are now in their teens and tend to go their own way, but when they were much younger and had little choice, my wife and I used to take them with us on jaunts to Keeneland Race Course and Churchill Downs in Kentucky. And occasionally they would go with me for the short trip down to River Downs, literally 10 minutes down the hill from home. That trip was especially welcome to them as their reward was usually a cool and sweet tasting ice cream cone served at the track.

My daughter was probably barely able to walk, if that, on her first trip to a Keeneland fall meeting. The kids enjoyed it their because the snacks were tasty (even for us adults) and they could get up close and personal with the horses saddling in the outside paddock. It made their day if they could “pet the horses”, meaning the lead horses that would rest in the shade of a tunnel underneath the stands.

Towards the end of the day, they were quite content to relax for a race or two in their seats while Mom and mainly Dad studied the program. My daughter had been calm and relaxed talking to all the neighbors until the race started. As the excitement of the race began, my daughter stood up on her chair shouting “I love horses! I love horses! I love horses!” as the racers thundered down the stretch.

My son, ever the organized one, would check the tote board as we would get seated before the first race, and read the scratches and changes for the day so that I could correctly mark my program. There was a time I took him down to the rail to watch the start of a race from right in front of the starting gate. Sitting on my shoulders as the horses approached the gate, it’s fairly quiet, the only noise being the murmur of the crowd and the clop of horse hooves in the dirt. Until that gate springs open with a bang, a bell rings with a clang, and the racers explode out of their stalls! My son’s eyes turned wide with surprise and awe.

Before many races, my wife would read the names of the contending horses to my daughter, soliciting her “educated opinion”, while I’d be intensely studying the program. Needless to say, most of the time I tossed my tickets on the ground as my wife would walk smugly back into the stands to collect her winnings.

Enjoy the article, and, if you get the chance, take your children to the races for a pleasant day of horse racing fun.